Long-term changes in ice coverage in the area of the Svalbard (Spitsbergen) and Franz Josef Land archipelagos

Abstract

A comparative analysis of inter-annual changes in ice coverage and time scales of its variability in the waters surrounding the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelagos has been performed. The analysis was carried out for the selected quasi-homogeneous regions. Open sources of information (satellite observations) collected by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute were used. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in ice coverage were studied over the period 1979–2019, since the uniform series of the satellite data were available for this period. The change of a relatively stable type of ice regime to a regime with a high level of inter-annual variability, which occurred in 2004–2006, was established. A significant negative trend in the change in ice coverage, characteristic of the waters surrounding both archipelagos, was revealed. Correlation and spectral analyses were used to estimate possible periods of cyclic fluctuations in ice coverage (taking into account the limited duration of the observation series), which amounted about 5–6 years. An efforts were made to establish possible relationships between the ice coverage fluctuations and the main atmospheric and oceanic indices. Essentially, no statistical connection with the main atmospheric indices (Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations) was found, but the feedback with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index had been established. The maximum correlation coefficients for Spitsbergen are observed in the winter season, while in the area of Franz-Joseph Land this takes place in summer, which may be attributed to the final velocity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation signal.

Keywords

• сезонные и межгодовые изменения ледовитости
• изменчивость
• архипелаги земля франца-иосифа и шпицберген