PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP IMPOR MINYAK BUMI PERIODE 1980 – 2013

Abstract

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topic discussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by adding several independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rate and inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is Ordinary Least Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous test explains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflation have a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determination uses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governments can increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing of investment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence on oil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.

Keywords

• Oil import
• fuel subsidy
• number of vehicles