Synthesizing Mitigation Ambitions and Implementation of the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector

Abstract

The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, a knowledge gap remains regarding whether current ambitions can achieve the temperature targets. This study established a 4-step analytical framework to evaluate the mitigation targets, pledged ambitions, and implementation within the AFOLU sector based on the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies of the typical 80 countries. The results indicated that 58 countries set quantitative mitigation targets, including emission and activity targets. Twenty-six countries established emission targets for 2030, representing a median emission reduction ambition of 25.5%. AFOLU’s emissions are expected to be reduced by 1,305.26 MtCO2-eq year−1, approximately 16% of total emissions, if unconditional emission targets are met, and 2,230.20 MtCO2-eq year−1, approximately 27% of total emissions, if conditional emission targets are met. Compared to emission targets, activity targets lead to higher ambitions, with a 2.52 GtCO2-eq year−1 economic potential, approximately 30% of total emissions, and a 4.41 GtCO2-eq year−1 technical potential, approximately 53% of total emissions. The identified finance needs are at least 842.98 billion USD by 2030, far exceeding current investment levels, yet still falls short of achieving the temperature targets. Currently, 51 of the 58 countries have proposed policy instruments to help realize their targets, with regulatory and cognitive instruments playing fundamental roles. However, ambiguous, incoherent, and inadequate policy information leads to uncertainties regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of mitigation ambitions and their implementation.