Likelihood-Based Prediction of Future Weibull Record Values

Abstract

Point prediction of future record values from a sequence of independent and identically distributed two-parameter Weibull random variables using the maximum likelihood method is considered. Two possible likelihood functions for prediction, the predictive and the observed predictive likelihood functions, are considered and the associated predictors are derived. Mean squared error and Pitman closeness criterion are used for comparing the prediction procedures.

Keywords

• point prediction
• maximum observed likelihood predictor
• maximum likelihood predictor
• upper record values
• Pitman closeness
• Weibull distribution