Plasma pTau181 enhances the prediction of future clinical decline in amyloid‐positive mild cognitive impairment

Abstract

Abstract Plasma pTau181, a marker of amyloid and tau burden, was evaluated as a prognostic predictor of clinical decline and Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression of amyloid‐positive (Aβ+) patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The training cohort for constructing the Bayesian prediction models comprised 135 Aβ+ MCI clinical trial placebo subjects. Performance was evaluated in two validation cohorts. An 18‐month ≥1 increase in the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes was the clinical decline criterion. Baseline plasma pTau181 concentration matched clinical assessments’ prediction performance. Adding pTau181 to clinical assessments significantly improved the prediction of an 18‐month clinical decline and the 36‐month progression from Aβ+ MCI to AD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the latter increased from 71.8% to 79%, and the hazard ratio for time‐to‐progression improved from 2.26 to 3.11 (p < 0.0001). Baseline plasma pTau181 has the potential for identifying Aβ+ MCI subjects with faster clinical decline over time. Highlights This study assessed pTau181 as a prognostic predictor of 18‐month clinical decline and extended progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in amyloid‐positive patients with mild cognitive impairment (Aβ+ MCI). The research findings underscore the promise of baseline plasma pTau181 as a screening tool for identifying Aβ+ MCI individuals with accelerated clinical decline within a standard 18‐month clinical trial period. The predictive accuracy is notably enhanced when combined with clinical assessments. Similar positive outcomes were noted in forecasting the extended progression of Aβ+ MCI subjects to AD.

Keywords

• blood‐based biomarkers
• disease progression
• machine learning
• prognosis