Integration of catastrophe and entropy theories for flood risk mapping in peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

Abstract A major challenge in flood mapping using multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is the selection of the flood risk factors and the estimation of their relative importance. A novel MCDA method through the integration of two state‐of‐the‐art MCDA methods based on catastrophe and entropy theory is proposed for mapping flood risk in the Peninsular Malaysia, an area very susceptible to flooding events, is presented. A literature review was undertaken which identified the various socioeconomic, physical and environmental factors which can influence flood vulnerability and risk. A set of variables was selected using an importance index which was developed based on a questionnaire survey. Population density, percentage of vulnerable people, household income, local economy, percentage of foreign nationals, elevation and forest cover were all deemed highly relevant in mapping flood risk and determining the zones of maximum vulnerability. Spatial integration of factors using the proposed MCDA revealed that coastal regions are highly vulnerable to floods when compared to inland locations. Flood risk maps indicate that the northeastern coastal region of Malaysia is at greatest risk of flooding. The prediction capability of the integrated method was found to be 0.93, which suggests good accuracy of the proposed method in flood risk mapping.

Keywords

• catastrophe theory
• composite vulnerability
• entropy theory
• flood risk
• importance index
• multi‐criteria decision‐making analysis