Comparing prediction efficiency in the BTW and Manna sandpiles

Abstract

Abstract The state-of-the-art in the theory of self-organized criticality reveals that a certain inactivity precedes extreme events, which are located on the tail of the event probability distribution with respect to their sizes. The existence of the inactivity allows for the prediction of these events in advance. In this work, we explore the predictability of the Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld (BTW) and Manna models on the square lattice as a function of the lattice length. For both models, we use an algorithm that forecasts the occurrence of large events after a fall in activity. The efficiency of the prediction can be universally described in terms of the event size divided by an appropriate power-law function of the lattice length. The power-law exponents are projected to be 2.75 and 3 for the Manna and BTW models respectively. The scaling with the exponent 2.75 is known for collapsing of the entire size-frequency relationship in the Manna model. However, the correspondence between events on different lattices in the BTW model requires a variety of exponents where 3 is the largest. This indicates that in thermodynamic limit, prediction does exist in the Manna but not in the BTW model, at least based on inactivity. The difference in the universality classes may underline the difference in the prediction.

Keywords

• Self-organized criticality
• Prediction of extremes
• Scaling
• Two types of errors
• Critical exponents