Spatiotemporal Evolution of Winter Wheat Planting Area and Meteorology-Driven Effects on Yield under Climate Change in Henan Province of China

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Henan Province. The analysis, under the utilization of GLASS LAI data, focuses on shifts in the planting areas of winter wheat. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in meteorological factors during the winter wheat growth period has also been conducted. The findings reveal a fluctuating increase in accumulated temperature across Henan Province, ranging from 3145 °C to 3424 °C and exhibiting a gradual rise from north to south. In particular, precipitation patterns from 1980 to 2019 showed limited significant trends, while notable abrupt changes were observed in 1983, 2004, 2009, and 2016. Geographically, southwestern Henan Province experiences greater precipitation than the northeast. Moreover, a fluctuating downward trend in sunshine hours has been observed, gradually decreasing from north to south. The study further highlights an increase in winter wheat planting frequency in the northwestern region of Luoyang and the northeastern part of Zhumadian, contrasted by a decrease in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Accumulated temperature is positively correlated with the expansion of winter wheat planting areas (R2 = 0.685), while sunshine hours exert a suppressive effect (R2 = 0.637). Among meteorological factors, accumulated temperature emerges as the most crucial determinant, followed by precipitation, with sunshine hours having a relatively minor influence. Yield demonstrates a positive association with accumulated temperature (R2 = 0.765) and a negative correlation with sunshine hours (R2 = −0.614). This finding is consistent with the impact of meteorological factors on winter wheat production. The results of this study enhance the understanding of how the underlying mechanisms of climate change impact crop yields.

Keywords

• climate change
• winter wheat
• planting area
• yield
• correlation analysis
• ArcGIS