Indonesia Energy Mix Modelling Using System Dynamics

Abstract

This paper is to introduce a new approach in building the national Energy Mix Vision, share an initial stage of the system dynamics modelling and discuss the modelling challenges. A literature review defines the preferred modelling for Indonesia, empirical data are then solicited to demonstrate the supply mix trends and used as baseline in developing the initial model to represent the past behaviour prior to be enhanced, upgraded and simulated to perform the desired behaviour towards the vision. The initial simulation runs succeed in imitating the historical trends and suggests that engineering of the model to the envisaged patterns and then examined through Focus Group Discussions may offer viable solution. The unprecedented use of System Dynamics and the results are unique. Keywords: Comparative Overview; Empirical Data; System Dynamic Modelling; Initial Model of Indonesia Today; Modelling Challenges;