A method to assess national metal criticality: the environment as a foremost measurement

Abstract

Abstract Ever-increasing mineral demand inspires nations to inspect the metal criticality situation that would be an indispensable path to ensure supply security in a foreseeable future. A diverse range of methods has been used to analyze the criticality; however, except a few, their applicability is questionable due to varying results. This article presents and discusses an advanced method to measure the degree of national criticality of metals conjoining both previously noted and pioneer indicators while considering China as the sample at the necessary point. The formulated methodology consists of a three-dimensional framework: supply risk, environmental risk, and supply restriction risk. The risk score of each indicator under each dimension is calculated through a specifically designed methodology. The risk score range is interpreted to a general 0–100 scale. The final risk score of each dimension is determined by averaging the total indicator risk score of that dimension. The developed criticality method is applicable for countries, which take part in the mineral production. The environmental-risk assessment is performed for 56–62 countries in reference to copper and aluminum production. Further discussion in relation to the country-specific criticality is decentralized observing the risk severity of indicators under two succinct approaches: single-metal approach and multiple-metal approach. The obtained results associated with China demonstrate that substantial criticalities can be aggregated in supply restriction and environmental sides regarding copper and aluminum, respectively. However, the environmental-risk assessment conducted for various nations in the world shows a very low risk status except the China’s situation. Although, such indicator quantifications in the proposed method are transparent, robust, reliable, and flexible to encounter medium-term perspectives, the conducted assessment is relatively static since the evaluation is almost based on the year 2015 statistics and information. Nevertheless, the created methodology will be advantageous as a decision-making tool to implement productive national strategies and policies to achieve resource sustainability. Here, a national government can address certain issues related to the metal production by distinghushing indicator values. A government can also determine what optimizations would strategically profitable in short and medium terms such as recycling, substitutes, and imports.