A New Probabilistic "Paradox" Involving the Bayes Theorem

Abstract

In this paper we present a new probabilistic “paradox” involving the Bayes theorem. The resolution of the paradox is elementary, but it has some subtly features due to the fine tuning of the integer values used in order to develop the working mechanism of the story. The author anticipates the “paradox” itself worth some attention because it seams to shed a light on several important issues, including the way sometimes precise information can be gained from highly uncertain data.