Evaluation of Transfer Efficiency between Subway and Bus Based on the Interval Number Ranking Method by Employing Probability Reliability: Taking Ningbo for Example

Abstract

In recent years, the construction and operation of urban subways have been gradually increasing in developing countries. In the next step, more attention should be paid to the transfer efficiency between subway and bus so as to improve the travel efficiency of more urban residents. This paper uses the probability credibility interval number ranking method to evaluate the bus transfer efficiency. Firstly, this study obtains the dynamic transfer time data by matching individual smart card and subway/bus global positioning system (GPS) records, which is used to evaluate the transfer efficiency of corresponding subway stations. Then, we establish a probability density function to represent the characteristic information of transfer time. Accordingly, the probability reliability model of the order relation of interval numbers can be constructed. In the end, the method is applied to evaluate the transfer efficiency between subway and bus stations in Ningbo. Compared to the traditional interval number ranking method, the evaluation result shows that this method can get a more objective transfer efficiency order relation. The reason is that this method can not only consider the random feature of transfer time but also make use of the data distribution characteristics. This method could be applied to obtain the stations with relatively low transfer efficiency and the feedback can be used for bus line operation and station layout improvement.