Business Risk Management Techniques and Expert Methods of their Evaluation

Abstract

The article is aimed at researching the problem of risk when substantiating decisions not only of a strategic nature, but also at the stage of short-term planning. In this regard, the problem of risk assessment takes on an independent theoretical and applied value as an important part of the theory and practice of the system of information security management. The next step was to review, research and analyze the system of business planning management for an economic entity that relates to a complex IT system. One of the options for solving this issue may be the development and creation of a computer expert system of business planning. The research results are the types and categories of business risks being analyzed, as well as the impact of IT risks in business, in particular, techniques of business risk management are disclosed. The risk management methodologies such as CRAMM, COBIT, FRAP and OCTAVE, which are among the main and widely used in both government and commercial organizations around the world, have also been described. The methodologies under research have both positive and negative aspects in risk management, and do not provide for the resolution of the consequences of risks that have not been minimized or prevented. Studies have shown that as methods of economic and mathematical modeling of the solution to the task of optimizing the management of business planning processes is proposed to use the results of works on the study and use of artificial intelligence methods, namely, technologies for the development and creation of computer expert systems to implement information support and support managerial decisions. Prospects for further research in this direction are our proposed development of an expert system as an instrumentarium of the system of business process management and support of managerial decision-making, as well as the use of such expert systems to assess risks by business entities, which will provide them with an efficient instrumentarium of forming business plans for the implementation of various production and commercial projects.

Keywords

• risk
• business risks
• business processes
• methodology
• management
• expert methods