Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

David J Price; Freya M Shearer; Michael T Meehan; Emma McBryde; Robert Moss; Nick Golding; Eamon J Conway; Peter Dawson; Deborah Cromer; James Wood; Sam Abbott; Jodie McVernon; James M McCaw

doi:10.7554/eLife.58785

eLife (Aug 2020)

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

David J Price,
Freya M Shearer,
Michael T Meehan,
Emma McBryde,
Robert Moss,
Nick Golding,
Eamon J Conway,
Peter Dawson,
Deborah Cromer,
James Wood,
Sam Abbott,
Jodie McVernon,
James M McCaw

Affiliations

David J Price: ORCiD; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
Freya M Shearer: ORCiD; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Michael T Meehan: Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
Emma McBryde: Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
Robert Moss: Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Nick Golding: Telethon Kids Institute and Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Eamon J Conway: Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
Peter Dawson: Defence Science and Technology, Department of Defence, Canberra, Australia
Deborah Cromer: Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
James Wood: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Sam Abbott: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Jodie McVernon: Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia; Infection and Immunity Theme, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
James M McCaw: ORCiD; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58785
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9

Abstract

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As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Published in eLife

ISSN: 2050-084X (Online)
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine; Science: Biology (General)
Website: https://elifesciences.org

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