Risk-Quantification Method for Car-Following Behavior Considering Driving-Style Propensity

Abstract

To systematically study the influence of a propensity for a particular driving style on car-following risk, a safety potential field risk-quantification method that considers driving style is proposed. First, we classify driving behaviors and construct a field-based safety potential car-following model via analogy with intermolecular interactions; second, we establish a risk-quantification model by considering driving style, risk exposure, and risk severity and classify the consequent risk into four levels, high risk, medium risk, low risk, and safe, using the fuzzy C-means algorithm. Finally, we predict the car-following risk using the LightGBM algorithm in real time. The experimental results show that the LightGBM algorithm can recognize up to 86% of medium–high risk levels compared to the Decision Tree and Random Forest Algorithms. It can achieve effective prediction of car-following risk, which provides sufficient warning information to drivers and helps improve the overall safety of vehicle operation.

Keywords

• traffic safety
• driving style propensity
• safety potential field
• car following
• risk quantification