Development and validation of an interpretable prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (P-ROSC) score for patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using machine learning: A retrospective study

Abstract

Summary: Background: Return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) before arrival at the emergency department is an early indicator of successful resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Several ROSC prediction scores have been developed with European cohorts, with unclear applicability in Asian settings. We aimed to develop an interpretable prehospital ROSC (P-ROSC) score for ROSC prediction based on patients with OHCA in Asia. Methods: This retrospective study examined patients who suffered from OHCA between Jan 1, 2009 and Jun 17, 2018 using data recorded in the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS) registry. AutoScore, an interpretable machine learning framework, was used to develop P-ROSC. On the same cohort, the P-ROSC was compared with two clinical scores, the RACA and the UB-ROSC. The predictive power was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) in the receiver operating characteristic analysis. Findings: 170,678 cases were included, of which 14,104 (8.26%) attained prehospital ROSC. The P-ROSC score identified a new variable, prehospital drug administration, which was not included in the RACA score or the UB-ROSC score. Using only five variables, the P-ROSC score achieved an AUC of 0.806 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.799–0.814), outperforming both RACA and UB-ROSC with AUCs of 0.773 (95% CI 0.765–0.782) and 0.728 (95% CI 0.718–0.738), respectively. Interpretation: The P-ROSC score is a practical and easily interpreted tool for predicting the probability of prehospital ROSC. Funding: This research received funding from SingHealth Duke-NUS ACP Programme Funding (15/FY2020/P2/06-A79).

Keywords

• Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
• Return of spontaneous circulation
• Interpretable machine learning
• Score