Understanding Links Between Water Scarcity and Violent Conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin Using the Water Footprint Concept

Abstract

Abstract Whilst there are several empirical studies linking water scarcity and violent conflicts, existing quantitative studies use mostly climate and environmental variables even though such variables have been shown to not be strong predictors of water conflicts by some studies. The aim of this study was to use the water footprint concept and the Falkenmark index to identify water scarcity hotspots at the sub‐national scale and to understand the links between water scarcity and violent conflicts in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin over a period of two decades (2000–2021). We achieve this by developing five water scarcity metrics at a monthly timescale using runoff, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, water consumption and demographic data. The developed metrics show high levels of water scarcity across the study area during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Analyses further reveal high green water scarcity (GWS) (soil moisture deficit) and low Falkenmark index scores (water stress) during the dry, pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, across all reported water conflict locations. This suggest that there is an indirect link between GWS, the Falkenmark index scores and water conflicts. Results from this study may be used to enhance water management, mitigate, and prevent water conflicts in the study area and likewise the methodology adopted may be used to address water scarcity and conflicts in other regions.

Keywords

• water scarcity metrics
• Falkenmark index
• armed conflict
• central‐west Africa
• water conflicts