Global termite methane emissions have been affected by climate and land-use changes

Abstract

Abstract Termites with symbiotic methanogens are a known source of atmospheric methane (CH4), but large uncertainties remain regarding the flux magnitude. This study estimated global termite CH4 emissions using a framework similar to previous studies but with contemporary datasets and a biogeochemical model. The global termite emission in 2020 was estimated as 14.8 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 year−1, mainly from tropical and subtropical ecosystems, indicating a major natural source from upland regions. Uncertainties associated with estimation methods were assessed. The emission during the historical period 1901–2021 was estimated to have increased gradually (+ 0.7 Tg CH4 year−1) as a result of combined influences of elevated CO2 (via vegetation productivity), climatic warming, and land-use change. Future projections using climate and land-use scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways [ssp] 126 and 585) also showed increasing trends (+ 0.5 to 5.9 Tg CH4 year−1 by 2100). These results suggest the importance of termite emissions in the global CH4 budget and, thus, in climatic prediction and mitigation.