Real-Time Estimation of <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> for COVID-19 Spread
Theodore E. Simos,
Charalampos Tsitouras,
Vladislav N. Kovalnogov,
Ruslan V. Fedorov,
Dmitry A. Generalov
Affiliations
Theodore E. Simos
Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia
Charalampos Tsitouras
General Department, Euripus Campus, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Athens, Greece
Vladislav N. Kovalnogov
Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia
Ruslan V. Fedorov
Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia
Dmitry A. Generalov
Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia
We propose a real-time approximation of R0 in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R0 is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R0. Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach.
