Comparison of breast cancer burden in Iranian women with Eastern Mediterranean region and prediction by exponential smoothing method

Abstract

Introduction: The aim of this study was to investigate the burden of breast cancer (DALY Index) trend in Iran and compare it with the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) and finally to predict the burden of this disease. Materials and Methods: Equalization of breast cancer burden trend in Iran and the EMR during the years 1990 to 2017 was tested using Cochrane Armitage method. The trend of changes in breast cancer burden in Iran and the EMR during this period was examined by three regression models and the best model was determined based on the model utility indicators. DALY index prediction between 2018 and 2027 was performed using exponential smoothing procedure. Results: Statistically, DALY index trend in Iran and the EMR did not differ significantly. In Iran, the DALY index in 2013 increased from equivalent index in the EMR. The trend of DALY index in Iran has increased rapidly from 2000 to 2015 and then, until 2017, the growth rate of this index decreased and according to the forecast from 2018 to 2027, a slight increase in this index will expect. In the EMR, the growth rate of the DALY index increased from 1990 to 2006 with a steady slope, then, by 2017, the slope of growth had slowed slightly and according to the forecast model, the trend of the DALY index until 2027 will be similar to the 2006 to 2017 period. Conclusion: Due to the increasing trend of breast cancer over the past years, as well as increasing prediction of this trend, preventive measures such as designing a regular screening program and training and lifestyle modification are recommended.

Keywords

• breast cancer burden
• iran
• eastern mediterranean region
• forecasting