The impact of business and consumer confidence on stock market returns

Abstract

This research examines the impact of business confidence and consumer confidence on stock market returns. The result has shown that consumer confidence has positive influence on stock market returns. The variablity of stock market returns is explained by 5.52 % of the movement of consumer confidence and 94.48 % of the movement of itself in the second month. In the third month, the variablity ofstock market returns is explained by 6.9 % of the movement of consumer confidence and 93.1 % of the movement of itself. After four months, the variablity of stock market returns is explained by 7.3 % of the movement of consumer confidence and 92.7 % of the movement of itself, this ratio is maintained stably for the next months. The result of using OLS estimation method has shown that business confidence and consumer confidence accounted for 8.99 % of the variablity of stock market returns. However, evidence of the impact of business confidence on the stock market returns has not been found yet.

Keywords

• lợi nhuận thị trường
• niềm tin kinh doanh
• niềm tin tiêu dùng.