Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

Abstract Background Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models. Methods We built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible–exposed–infectious–asymptomatic–recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province. This model was used to evaluate the effect by cutting off different transmission routes and taking different interventions into account, to offer clues for disease prevention and control. Results The transmission model fits the reported data well with a minimum R 2 value of 0.29 and a maximum value of 0.80, P < 0.05. Meanwhile, cutting off the environmental transmission route had the greatest effect on the prevention and control of SFTS, while isolation and shortening the course of the disease did not have much effect. Conclusions The model we have built can be used to simulate the transmission of SFTS to help inform disease control. It is noteworthy that cutting off the environment-to-humans transmission route in the model had the greatest effect on SFTS prevention and control. Graphic Abstract

Keywords

• Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome
• Bunyavirus
• Mathematical model
• Environment
• Ticks
• Transmission