Weather and Climate Extremes (Sep 2021)
Extreme wind climate of the Arabian Peninsula characterized by using WRF simulation
Abstract
Wind hazard is one of the most severe natural hazards. Structures and infrastructure can be vulnerable to wind load effects due to extreme wind speeds. Mitigation and the reduction of wind-related risks of structures and infrastructures can be made by considering the wind load effects within the structural design process. Building design codes or standards for some countries in the Arabian Peninsula do not formally define the wind load effects. For countries with wind load provisions in their building codes and standards, the spatial resolution of design wind speeds may not be sufficient to cover many cities or areas. To date, there has not been a comprehensive study on the extreme wind hazards at the design level in the Arabian Peninsula. Extreme wind hazards have been conventionally evaluated by using historical surface observations. However, an investigation showed that many meteorological stations in the Arabian Peninsula cannot be used to evaluate the design wind speeds due to low data quality or insufficient sampling resolution. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to obtain data with a high spatial-temporal resolution. The simulated extreme wind speeds across the Arabian Peninsula were characterized statistically. Spatial distributions of the extreme wind speeds and their associated attributes were investigated. The simulated wind speeds were separated into convective event-induced wind speeds and synoptic wind speeds to obtain the design wind speeds. The convective wind events were identified using a statistical algorithm defining the threshold values of the Lifted Index and the Convective Available Potential Energy values. A numerical parametric cyclone model was used to simulate the cyclone-induced extreme wind speeds for the southern coastal regions of the Arabian Peninsula. The design wind speeds were evaluated by using the most appropriate probability distribution and preferred fitting method. Contour maps of various return period wind speeds were developed.
