Verification of Mathematical Models of Plague

Abstract

Mathematic modeling and prognostication of infectious diseases epidemic process is a promising trend of epidemiologic investigations. The complex of mathematic models (SEIRF type) of plague epidemic process was developed for this purpose by the Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” and laboratory of epidemiologic cybernetics of N.F.Gamaleya Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology. The data on the plague outbreak in 1945 in the rural settlement Avan’ (Aral region of Kzyl-Orda district of Kazakh SSR) were used to test working efficiency of this complex. The data analysis permitted to obtain the starting and boundary conditions for epidemic process modeling. In the process of modeling the mathematical models of epidemic process of plague with various ways of infection transmission for each epidemic focus in regard with historical data were used. The data were processed by the analytical platform Deductor 5.1. Identified was strong positive correlation between estimated and historical data – r = +0,71. The results received testify that mathematic models are effective and give high degree of confidence. They can be used to receive quantitative characteristics of prognosis for plague epidemic process development with different transmission routes considering that anti-epidemic measures have been taken.

Keywords

• вспышка чумы
• математическая модель
• эпидемический процесс
• plague outbreak
• mathematic model
• epidemic process