Little Change in Apparent Hydrological Sensitivity at Large CO2 Forcing

Abstract

Abstract Apparent hydrological sensitivity (ηa), the change in the global mean precipitation per degree K of global surface warming, is a key aspect of the climate system's response to increasing CO2 forcing. To determine whether ηa depends on the forcing amplitude we analyze idealized experiments over a broad range of abrupt CO2 forcing, from 2× to 8× preindustrial values, with two distinct climate models. We find little change in ηa between 2× and 4×CO2, and almost no change beyond 5×CO2. We validate this finding under transient CO2 forcing at 1%‐per‐year, up to 8×CO2. We further corroborate this result by analyzing the 1%‐per‐year output of more than 15 CMIP5/6 models. Lastly, we examine the 1,000‐year long LongrunMIP model output, and again find little change in ηa. This wealth of results demonstrates that ηa is a very weak function of CO2 forcing.

Keywords

• hydrological sensitivity
• precipitation
• global warming