Performance analysis based on probabilistic modelling of Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (QASP) Pakistan

Abstract

The solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has gained global importance to overcome the global warming and meet future energy needs. The performance of a solar PV plant depends on many factors such as solar irradiance, weather conditions, various types of energy losses and system degradation over time. Although the deterministic models nicely predict the PV performance at a single instant in time, however, they fail to account for the uncertainty and randomness in the input parameters. Probabilistic models, in contrast, are more useful to predict the system performance over a time span under real conditions. In this study, a probabilistic model has been developed for the performance analysis of a recently commissioned 100 MW power plant at Bahawalpur, Pakistan. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulation method and uses the probable range of input data from the site of the power plant. The performance of the power plant is presented in terms of monthly and seasonal electricity generation. The associated energy losses are discussed in detailed. Furthermore, a comprehensive cost analysis of the power plant has been provided. According to results from the model, the power produced in the first year of operation of the plant is 136,700 MWh and the projected cumulative energy produced during a plant lifetime of 25 years is 3,108,450 MWh. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimated by the model is 0.0795 $/kWh, which is quite reasonable in comparison to the average 0.1 $/kWh cost of electricity to a domestic customer in Pakistan.

Keywords

• Monte Carlo simulation
• Solar PV Designing
• Renewable energy power plants
• LCOE
• Probability analysis