A population-based spatio-temporal analysis of the early COVID-19 dynamic in Serbia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic escalated in almost all parts of the world over a very short period of time. The speed of the spread was determined by the degree of mobility of the population, while the risk of severe illness or death depended on the population’s demographic characteristics, population health status, and the capacity of the health system to treat patients. This paper aims to assess spatio-temporal patterns of patients with COVID-19 in Serbia at the early stage and whether these patterns are linked to valid public health measures that were enforced during this period. The study adopted the local Moran’s index to identify the spatial grouping of the number of infected at a municipality level and joinpoint regression analysis to identify whether and when statistically significant changes occurred to the number of infected by gender and age groups, and to the number of deaths in the entire population. The results show the polarisation of the spatial grouping of the number of infected. Considering the change in the trend in the number of infected between genders, no significant difference was noticeable. When the age-gender categories of infected were examined, the differences became more significant. In addition, changes in the trend were associated with the tightening or loosening of public health measures.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• local Moran’s index
• Joinpoint regression analysis
• gender-age differences
• Serbia