The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on real GDP in Iran

Abstract

In this paper, the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on GDP have been investigated by co-integration analysis in Iran economy during the period 1960-2010. We used Hodrick-Prescott filtering to separate positive shocks from negative shocks. The results showed that in long run the negative shocks have stronger effects on output than positive ones that can have damaging repercussions on economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the real sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts

Keywords

• lead
• real GDP
• Iran economy
• asymmetric effects
• oil price shocks
• Johansen cointegration test