Comparison of the Evolution of the COVID-19 Disease between Romania and Italy

Abstract

After the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, thousands of Romanian citizens who worked in Northern Italy, Spain or Germany returned to Romania. Based on the time-dependent susceptible–infected–recovered—SIR model, this paper compares the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy, assuming that the parameter value of R0 in the time-dependent SIR model decreases to R1 R0 after publicly announced restrictions by the government, and increases to a value of R2 R1 when the restrictions are lifted. Among other things, we answer the questions about the date and extent of the second peak in Italy and Romania with respect to different values of R2 and the duration of the restrictions.

Keywords

• COVID-19 pandemic evolution
• time dependent SIR model