Combining evolutionary computation with machine learning technique for improved short-term prediction of UT1-UTC and length-of-day

Abstract

Abstract Over the years, prediction techniques for the highly variable angular velocity of the Earth represented by Earth's rotation (UT1-UTC) and length-of-day (LOD) have been continuously improved. This is because many applications like navigation, astronomy, space exploration, climate studies, timekeeping, disaster monitoring, and geodynamic studies, all rely on predictions of these Earth rotation parameters. They provide early warning of changes in the Earth's rotation, allowing various industries and scientific fields to operate more precisely and efficiently. Thus, in our study, we focused on short-term prediction for UT1-UTC (dUT1) and LOD. Our prediction approach is to combine machine learning (ML) technique with efficient evolutionary computation (EC) algorithms to achieve reliable and improved predictions. Gaussian process regression (GPR) is used as the ML technique with genetic algorithm (GA) as the EC algorithm. GA is used for hyperparameter optimization of GPR model as selecting appropriate values for hyperparameter are essential to ensure that the prediction model can accurately capture the underlying patterns in the data. We conducted some experiments with our prediction approach to thoroughly test its capabilities. Moreover, two forecasting strategies were used to assess the performance in both hindcast and operational settings. In most of the experiments, the data used are the multi-technique combinations (C04) generated by International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). In one of the experiments, we also investigated the performance of our prediction model on dUT1 and LOD from four different products obtained from IERS EOP 20 C04, DTRF20, JTRF20 and USNO. The prediction products are evaluated with real estimates of the EOP product with which the model is trained. The combined excitations of the atmosphere, oceans, hydrology, and sea level (AAM + OAM + HAM + SLAM) are used as predictors because they are highly correlated to the input data. The results depict the highest performance of 0.412 ms in dUT1 and 0.092 ms/day in LOD, on day 10 of predictions. It is worth noting that the later predictions were obtained by incorporating the uncertainty of the input data as weights in the prediction model, which was a novel approach tested in this study. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Prediction
• UT1-UTC
• LOD
• Machine learning
• Gaussian process regression
• Genetic algorithm