DIAGNOSTIC VALUE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR UPPER URINARY TRACT OBSTRUCTION

Abstract

Objective: To develop predictive models for choosing rational treatment tactics in SVO. Methods: Data from 655 patients aged 4 to 86 (average age 39.56±17.23 years) admitted to the Republican Specialized Scientific and Practical Medical Center of Urology in 2021-2023 with SVO were analyzed. There were 350 men (53.4%) and 305 women (46.6%) enrolled in the study. Patients were divided into groups according to the primary diagnoses: urolithiasis (UL) – 231 (35.3%), anomalies of the upper urinary tract (UUT) – 332 (50.7%), acquired diseases of the ureter – 92 (14.0%). Results: Critical Z-values (cut-off points) were calculated for each group, determining the complicated course of SVO. In the UL group, the Z-value was 1.910; in the group of patients with anomalies of the UUT, ureteropelvic stricture (UPS) – 1.998, ureteral stricture – 1.239, ureterocele – 1.894; in the group of patients with acquired diseases of the ureter, secondary ureteral strictures – 1.209, ureteral obliteration – 1.713. Conclusion: Discriminant prediction models showed high sensitivity and specificity for choosing the optimal tactical approach in patients with complicated SVO.

Keywords

• supravesical obstruction
• hydronephrosis
• prediction model
• management tactics