eLife (Oct 2014)
Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment
- Colin A Russell,
- Peter M Kasson,
- Ruben O Donis,
- Steven Riley,
- John Dunbar,
- Andrew Rambaut,
- Jason Asher,
- Stephen Burke,
- C Todd Davis,
- Rebecca J Garten,
- Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran,
- Simon I Hay,
- Sander Herfst,
- Nicola S Lewis,
- James O Lloyd-Smith,
- Catherine A Macken,
- Sebastian Maurer-Stroh,
- Elizabeth Neuhaus,
- Colin R Parrish,
- Kim M Pepin,
- Samuel S Shepard,
- David L Smith,
- David L Suarez,
- Susan C Trock,
- Marc-Alain Widdowson,
- Dylan B George,
- Marc Lipsitch,
- Jesse D Bloom
Affiliations
- Colin A Russell
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Peter M Kasson
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States
- Ruben O Donis
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Steven Riley
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- John Dunbar
- Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
- Andrew Rambaut
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Jason Asher
- Leidos contract support to the Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, United States
- Stephen Burke
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- C Todd Davis
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Rebecca J Garten
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran
- Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
- Simon I Hay
- ORCiD
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Sander Herfst
- Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Nicola S Lewis
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- James O Lloyd-Smith
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Catherine A Macken
- Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
- Sebastian Maurer-Stroh
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
- Elizabeth Neuhaus
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Colin R Parrish
- James A Baker Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
- Kim M Pepin
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Samuel S Shepard
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- David L Smith
- ORCiD
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- David L Suarez
- Exotic and Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research Unit, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratories, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, United States
- Susan C Trock
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Marc-Alain Widdowson
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States
- Dylan B George
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Marc Lipsitch
- ORCiD
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States
- Jesse D Bloom
- ORCiD
- Division of Basic Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, United States
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 3
Abstract
Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.
Keywords
