Projection of Agricultural Water Stress for Climate Change Scenarios: A Regional Case Study of Iraq
Saleem A. Salman,
Shamsuddin Shahid,
Ahmad Sharafati,
Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem,
Amyrhul Abu Bakar,
Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque,
Eun-Sung Chung,
Yaseen Adnan Ahmed,
Bryukhov Mikhail,
Zaher Mundher Yaseen
Affiliations
Saleem A. Salman
School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Shamsuddin Shahid
School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Ahmad Sharafati
Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Trust University, Barishal, Ruiya, Nobogram Road, Barishal 8200, Bangladesh
Amyrhul Abu Bakar
School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque
Faculty of Sustainable Design Engineering, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A4P3, Canada
Eun-Sung Chung
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Yaseen Adnan Ahmed
School of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Bryukhov Mikhail
Department of Urban Planning, Engineering Networks and Systems, Institute of Architecture and Construction, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Prospect, 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia
Zaher Mundher Yaseen
Department of Urban Planning, Engineering Networks and Systems, Institute of Architecture and Construction, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Prospect, 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia
Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to −34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (−29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (−1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq.
