Pediatric obesity in the United States: Age–period–cohort analysis

Abstract

The rates of obesity among American children aged 2–5 years has reached a historic high. It is crucial to identify the putative sources of population-level increases in obesity prevalence among preschool-aged children because early childhood is a critical window for obesity prevention and thus reduction of future incidence. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and hierarchical age–period–cohort analysis to examine lifecycle (i.e., age), historical (i.e., period), and generational (i.e., cohort) distribution of age- and sex-specific body mass index z-scores (zBMI) among 2–5-year-olds in the U.S. from 1999 to 2018. Our current findings indicate that period effects, rather than differences in groups born at a specific time (i.e., cohort effects), account for almost all of the observed changes in zBMI. We need a broad socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental strategy to counteract the current obesogenic environment that influences children of all ages and generations in order to reach large segments of preschoolers and achieve population-wide improvement.