Three-months extended and seasonal forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for thermodynamic climate prediction

Abstract

Conservation of thermal energy applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean is used to predict sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and their monthly changes for periods up to three months, and for seasonal prediction in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. The conservation equation includes horizontal transport of heat by mean ocean currents and by horizontal turbulent eddies, as well as heating by short-and long-wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat transmitted to the atmosphere by vertical turbulent transport. Computations for the period from June 1980 to May 1984 show that this model has some skill in predicting the large scale SSTA and monthly changes for periods as long as three months, and in predicting the seasonal SSTA.

Keywords

• Monthly and seasonal prediction
• sea surface temperature
• thermodynamic model