Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany

Abstract

Flood marks are rarely utilized in hazard assessment, mainly because of a lack of data availability and accessibility and mistrust in their reliability. Challenging these common assumptions, we present an approach for evaluation and practical utilization of flood marks by the example of the Kinzig River, a Rhine tributary from the Black Forest with a history of severe floods. We combined written documents describing flood marks with field mapping at three study sites and collected information relating to 89 marks – about 50 % of them still preserved – which refer to ≥15 large floods between 1824 and 1991. The inclusion of a detailed historical-mark survey enabled an assessment of changes through time for each flood mark: they extend from small (±15 cm) imprecisions in mark heights to considerable uncertainties in position, height, and displayed date for some modified marks. Plausibility checks with further data nevertheless demonstrated good overall consistency. We then juxtaposed these marks with the current, modeled flood hazard maps. A wide agreement is apparent, in that the large majority of marks are situated at probable heights and within the modeled flooding area associated with extreme floods. For the few exceptions, we see plausible and historically sound reasons in changed local hydraulic conditions by flood protection walls, exceptional processes during a massive ice jam, and possibly also a local underestimation of hazard along Kinzig River tributaries. Overall, this study highlights (1) the broad availability of flood mark data, both on a larger spatial scale and with regard to already vanished marks, and (2) the significance of the marks, verified by further data, and also demonstrates (3) the possibility of a straightforward inclusion in hazard assessment. We thus encourage the systematic collection, maintenance, and integration of flood marks as responsible risk management, not least regarding their value in the wider context of risk awareness and memory.