Towards Automated Model Selection for Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Abstract

Given the recent increase in demand for electricity, it is necessary for renewable energy sources (RESs) to be widely integrated into power networks, with the two most commonly adopted alternatives being solar and wind power. Nonetheless, there is a significant amount of variation in wind speed and solar irradiance, on both a seasonal and a daily basis, an issue that, in turn, causes a large degree of variation in the amount of solar and wind energy produced. Therefore, RES technology integration into electricity networks is challenging. Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance and wind speed is crucial for the efficient operation of renewable energy power plants, guaranteeing the electricity supply at the most competitive price and preserving the dependability and security of electrical networks. In this research, a variety of different models were evaluated to predict medium-term (24 h ahead) wind speed and solar irradiance based on real-time measurement data relevant to the island of Crete, Greece. Illustrating several preprocessing steps and exploring a collection of “classical” and deep learning algorithms, this analysis highlights their conceptual design and rationale as time series predictors. Concluding the analysis, it discusses the importance of the “features” (intended as “time steps”), showing how it is possible to pinpoint the specific time of the day that most influences the forecast. Aside from producing the most accurate model for the case under examination, the necessity of performing extensive model searches in similar studies is highlighted by the current work.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• data mining
• deep learning
• machine learning
• wind speed forecasting
• solar irradiance forecasting