The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 3 approved with reservations]

Susan Hoskins; Vincent G Nguyen; Sarah Beale; Alexei Yavlinsky; Thomas Byrne; Erica Wing Lam Fong; Jana Kovar; Annalan M. D. Navaratnam; Cyril Geismar; Anne M. Johnson; Martie van Tongeren; Andrew Hayward; Robert W. Aldridge

NIHR Open Research (Nov 2023)

The changing contributory role to infections of work, public transport, shopping, hospitality and leisure activities throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England and Wales [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 3 approved with reservations]

Susan Hoskins,
Vincent G Nguyen,
Sarah Beale,
Alexei Yavlinsky,
Thomas Byrne,
Erica Wing Lam Fong,
Jana Kovar,
Annalan M. D. Navaratnam,
Cyril Geismar,
Anne M. Johnson,
Martie van Tongeren,
Andrew Hayward,
Robert W. Aldridge

Affiliations

Susan Hoskins: ORCiD; Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Vincent G Nguyen: ORCiD; Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Sarah Beale: Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Alexei Yavlinsky: Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Thomas Byrne: Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Erica Wing Lam Fong: Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Jana Kovar: Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Annalan M. D. Navaratnam: ORCiD; Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Cyril Geismar: ORCiD; Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK
Anne M. Johnson: Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, England, WC1E 6BT, UK
Martie van Tongeren: Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, England, UK
Andrew Hayward: Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
Robert W. Aldridge: Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England, NW1 2DA, UK

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 3

Abstract

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Background Understanding how non-household activities contributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections under different levels of national health restrictions is vital. Methods Among adult Virus Watch participants in England and Wales, we used multivariable logistic regressions and adjusted-weighted population attributable fractions (aPAF) assessing the contribution of work, public transport, shopping, and hospitality and leisure activities to infections. Results Under restrictions, among 17,256 participants (502 infections), work [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.01 (1.65–2.44), (aPAF) 30% (22–38%)] and transport [(aOR 1.15 (0.94–1.40), aPAF 5% (-3–12%)], were risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 but shopping, hospitality and leisure were not. Following the lifting of restrictions, among 11,413 participants (493 infections), work [(aOR 1.35 (1.11–1.64), aPAF 17% (6–26%)] and transport [(aOR 1.27 (1.04–1.57), aPAF 12% (2–22%)] contributed most, with indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.21 (0.98–1.48), aPAF 7% (-1–15%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.24 (1.02–1.51), aPAF 10% (1–18%)] increasing. During the Omicron variant, with individuals more socially engaged, among 11,964 participants (2335 infections), work [(aOR 1.28 (1.16–1.41), aPAF (11% (7–15%)] and transport [(aOR 1.16 (1.04–1.28), aPAF 6% (2–9%)] remained important but indoor hospitality [(aOR 1.43 (1.26–1.62), aPAF 20% (13–26%)] and leisure [(aOR 1.35 (1.22–1.48), aPAF 10% (7–14%)] dominated. Conclusions Work and public transport were important to transmissions throughout the pandemic with hospitality and leisure’s contribution increasing as restrictions were lifted, highlighting the importance of restricting leisure and hospitality alongside advising working from home, when facing a highly infectious and virulent respiratory infection.

Published in NIHR Open Research

ISSN: 2633-4402 (Online)
Publisher: F1000 Research Ltd
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine
Website: https://openresearch.nihr.ac.uk/

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