Modeling of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome

Abstract

Introduction Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is an infection caused by rodents of the Bunyanvirales family towards humans. This disease in Chile is considered endemic, which has a high fatality rate. At present, some studies show the contagion between people of the Andes virus, whose locality is concentrated in Argentina and Chile. Objectives Analyze the possibility of hantavirus transmission between humans using an SEIR-type mathematical model. Methods An SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) mathematical model to express the dynamics of hantavirus disease is proposed, including the possibility of human-to-human transmission and the perception of risk. Results The peak of human-to-human contagion decreases by about 25% after increasing people’s perception of risk by reducing the rate of resistance to changeand increasing the speed of people’s reaction. Conclusions It is urgent to review risk communication strategies and prevention measures in the face of this possibility of massive human-tohuman infections, in addition to strengthening research and planning the development of a vaccine to protect populations exposed to this disease with a high fatality rate.

Keywords

• hantavirus
• epidemiology
• mathematics