Trends in road transportation fuel consumption and carbon emissions: a scenario analysis using system dynamic modelling

Abstract

This paper analyses the fuel consumption and emissions in road transportation sector by using system dynamic modelling (SDM). The road transportation in the Middle East countries depends on private mode and hence emission and fuel consumption are higher. The objective of this study was to identify the existing transport demand and supply, on fuel and emissions by developing a system dynamic model, to predict fuel consumption requirements and emissions. A conditional analysis, by considering three common scenarios to enhance the mass mobility by confining the private transport mode revealed a consumption reduction of 70% of energy and 50% of emission levels. Therefore, the transport modal split of 70:30 can fetch substantially high outcome through reduction in fuel and energy consumption.

Keywords

• fuel economy
• energy consumption
• emission reduction
• system dynamics
• time series forecasting