Spatial-Temporal Differences in the Effect of Epidemic Risk Perception on Potential Travel Intention: A Macropsychology-Based Risk Perception Perspective

Abstract

Most of the previous studies on the impact of risk perception on travel intention are based on an individual psychological perspective, and the understanding based on the perspective of macropsychology is insufficient. Analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of risk perception theory at the macropsychological and regional levels will expand the scope of risk perception theory, which may help to promote the orderly recovery of tourism activities under the normalization of epidemics at the regional level. This study uses Baidu big data, through a panel VAR analysis, to explore the impact of people’s epidemic risk perception on travelers intentions from a macropsychological level and to analyze the temporal and spatial differences of this impact. From a temporal perspective, this study found that the early stage of epidemic risk perception had a negative impact on travel intentions, and later, a compensatory effect on travelers intentions appeared. From the perspective of risks at different threat levels, the Wuhan epidemic with a high degree of threat had a greater impact, while foreign epidemics had less impact. From the perspective of spatial differences, this study indicated that the negative impact of attention to epidemics on attention to tourism basically shows a gradual decay from the core to secondary and then to peripheral areas. This research will reveal some new findings on the impact of perceived risk on behavior intention at the temporal and spatial levels, and will have certain reference value for regional tourism restoration and marketing under the influence of epidemics.