Meteorological linkage of Malaria cases in the eastern state of India

Abstract

Changing climate patterns impact sectors such as agriculture, hydrology, health, and others. Malaria is a vector-borne disease significantly associated with changing climate, rampant in Bihar State, India. Hence, the current study aimed to analyse the status and trends of malaria in Bihar with meteorological covariates. It is observed that the maximum cases are reported in the monsoon and post-monsoon phases of the year. Purnia district shows the maximum load. Males of more than 15 years of age are commonly affected. The monthly maximal, minimal, and average temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall were associated with malaria cases with a significant lag effect of 3, 1, 2, 0, and 1 month, respectively. It is depicted that one month before rainfall (i.e. lag 1), two months before (i.e. lag 2) average temperature and the current month for humidity predicts the incidence of malaria occurrence.

Keywords

• Vector-borne diseases
• Malaria, bihar
• Regression modelling
• Climate
• Weather