Model of scenario development in defense planning: Integration of scenario and decision: Making methods

Abstract

It is almost impossible to predict the future environment today, so instead of using prediction different methods of scenario development are used. Scenario as a hypothetical situation for future environment enables exploration of different possibilities of environment development in the future. Many methods based on a morphological analysis are used to develop scenarios. Numerous configurations of morphological fields prevent further use of scenarios and a practical description of the various scenarios. It is possible to reduce the number of configuration of morphological fields, classify configuration according to the different scenario classes and determine the representative configuration for the worst and best scenario case for each class of scenarios by integrating the method for scenario development with the decision-making methods. In this way further processing and description of scenarios is enabled, thus fulfilling a practical role of scenarios in the planning process.

Keywords

• scenario development methods
• morphological analysis
• decision-making
• classification
• clustering
• k-means
• decision tree