Energy demand and production forecasting in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan has been in severe energy crises since the year 2004. Major reasons behind energy crises are lack of use of modeling tools in power planning and policy development, dependence on imported energy sources and poor governance. In this paper, electricity demand forecasting for Pakistan up to the year 2030 and a proposal for utilizing domestic energy resources, such as, coal, natural gas, and solar resources available in Baluchistan province of Pakistan for the electricity needs of the country are presented. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop energy demand model for Pakistan that forecasts energy demand under two scenarios, i.e., baseline scenario and energy conservation scenario for the period from 2018 to 2030. Electrical power generation capacity of coal, natural gas and solar resources is also calculated considering the capacity factor of each type of energy asset using MATLAB. This work suggests that Pakistan's energy demand forecast is 399 TWh under the baseline scenario and 312 TWh under the energy conservation scenario. The power generation potential of domestic energy assets available in Baluchistan is 500.041 TWh in total, which includes Natural Gas 392.768 TWh, Solar 84.935 TWh and Coal 22.338 TWh. This research would help relevant government departments in Pakistan for power capacity development as per the required energy demand and alleviate energy crises in Pakistan.

Keywords

• Power crises
• Energy demand
• Domestic energy assets
• Power generation
• Baluchistan province
• Pakistan