Rank-Based Assessment of Grid-Connected Rooftop Solar Panel Deployments Considering Scenarios for a Postponed Installation

Abstract

Installing solar photovoltaic panels on building rooftops can help property managers generate renewable energy and reduce electricity costs. However, the existence of multiple efficiency indicators and ambiguity in interpreting these metrics limits the comparison of the performance of individual installation projects. This paper presents a methodology using data envelopment analysis to evaluate suitable candidates for rooftop solar panel installation. This approach integrates rooftop area, solar irradiation, temperature, costs, energy yield, and revenue to evaluate the relative efficiency of each building. To demonstrate the methodology, it was applied to rank 22 residential buildings, revealing the top performers for installation in 2022. The approach was subsequently adapted to assess potential outcomes under deferred implementation up to 2030, encompassing a diverse range of climate and pricing scenarios. Five installations were found to be optimal irrespective of the future scenarios. In addition, a super-efficiency approach was applied to overcome the low level of discrimination among the possible installations and to rank each individual unit uniquely. The analysis is designed to guide property owners in identifying favorable solar photovoltaic investments within their portfolios under changing conditions.

Keywords

• rooftop solar system
• photovoltaic panels
• data envelopment analysis
• scenario planning