Evaluation of the role of vaccination in the COVID-19 pandemic based on the data from the 50 U.S. States

Abstract

Vaccination is considered as the ultimate weapon to end the pandemic. However, the role of vaccines in the pandemic remains controversial. To explore the impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic, we used logistic regression models to predict numbers of population-adjusted confirmed cases, deaths, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, case fatality rates and ICU admission rates of COVID-19 in the 50 U.S. states, based on 17 related variables. The logistic regression analysis showed that percentages of people vaccinated correlated inversely with the numbers of COVID-19 deaths and case fatality rates but showed no significant correlation with numbers of confirmed cases or ICU cases, or ICU admission rates. The Spearman correlation analysis showed that the percentages of people vaccinated correlated inversely with the numbers of COVID-19 deaths, ICU cases, ICU case rates, and case fatality rates but showed no significant correlation with numbers of confirmed cases. The number of deaths and mortality in the group after the vaccine usage were significantly lower than those in the group before the vaccine usage. However, after delta became the dominant strain, there were no longer significant differences in the number of deaths and the mortality rate between before and after delta became the dominant strain, although vaccines were used in both periods. Vaccination can significantly reduce COVID-19 deaths and mortality, while it cannot reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection. In addition to vaccination, other measures, such as social distancing, remain important in containing COVID-19 transmission and lower the risk of COVID-19 severe outcomes.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Vaccination
• Machine learning
• Protective and risk factors
• Virus variant