Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

Eric  J. Anderson; Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome; James Kessler; Gregory  A. Lang; Philip  Y. Chu; John  G.W. Kelley; Yi Chen; Jia Wang

doi:10.3390/jmse6040123

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (Oct 2018)

Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

Eric J. Anderson,
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome,
James Kessler,
Gregory A. Lang,
Philip Y. Chu,
John G.W. Kelley,
Yi Chen,
Jia Wang

Affiliations

Eric J. Anderson: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome: Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA
James Kessler: Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
Gregory A. Lang: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
Philip Y. Chu: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
John G.W. Kelley: Coast Survey Development Laboratory, Office of Coast Survey, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
Yi Chen: Coast Survey Development Laboratory, Office of Coast Survey, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
Jia Wang: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040123
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 6, no. 4
p. 123

Abstract

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Ice Cover in the Great Lakes has significant impacts on regional weather, economy, lake ecology, and human safety. However, forecast guidance for the lakes is largely focused on the ice-free season and associated state variables (currents, water temperatures, etc.) A coupled lake-ice model is proposed with potential to provide valuable information to stakeholders and society at large about the current and near-future state of Great Lakes Ice. The model is run for three of the five Great Lakes for prior years and the modeled ice cover is compared to observations via several skill metrics. Model hindcasts of ice conditions reveal reasonable simulation of year-to-year variability of ice extent, ice season duration, and spatial distribution, though some years appear to be prone to higher error. This modeling framework will serve as the basis for NOAA’s next-generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS); a set of 3-D lake circulation forecast modeling systems which provides forecast guidance out to 120 h.

Published in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

ISSN: 2077-1312 (Online)
Publisher: MDPI AG
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Naval Science: Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Oceanography
Website: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/jmse

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