Validation of methods for developing typical meteorological years based on future climate models

Abstract

You Buildings designed for coming decades are more susceptible to global warming, rising average temperatures, and heat waves, which are of a greater risk than in the 1990s. Simulation-based design decisions may be inaccurate if just historical data is used to generate climate files. The building's energy performance, cooling and heating system’s design, and room unit sizing require reliable weather data. So far mainly historic meteorological data has been used for simulations. Annual simulations and cooling/heating system design often use a typical meteorological year (TMY) based on historical data using ISO 15927-4 and ISO 15927-2 thorough instructions for TMY for annual simulations and design day data. The above climate models lack the data needed to construct TMYs for building performance simulation (BPS) tools. Climate model forecast accuracy must also be examined from the BPS perspective. This work aims to illustrate and test methods for producing TMYs using three climate models with different resolution and modality in Tartu, Estonia, from 1985 to 2015. The ISO 15927-4 approach selected months from historical meteorological data appropriate for each climate model. Three BPS TMYs were created, and a reference building's energy needs simulated. Long-term historical data was used to simulate the reference building's energy requirement and develop TMYs. The results showed that all the TMYs developed based on NorESM, MPIESM and ECEarth climate models can represent well the energy needs obtained with the TMY based on historical weather data depending on the TMY generation method while MPIESM shows deficiency in cooling season. TMY based on NorESM have the most consistent energy need simulation results while TMY based on ECEarth also performs well both for predicting cooling and heating needs. The future work includes finding other suitable methods for TMY generation that results in even less errors for all models and further validation with other reference buildings for final climate model selection to develop future climate scenarios.