A Comparative Study on the Estimation of Wind Speed and Wind Power Density Using Statistical Distribution Approaches and Artificial Neural Network-Based Hybrid Techniques in Çanakkale, Türkiye

Abstract

In recent years, wind energy has become remarkably popular among renewable energy sources due to its low installation costs and easy maintenance. Having high energy potential is of great importance in the selection of regions where wind energy investments will be made. In this study, the wind power potential in Çanakkale Province, located in the northwest of Türkiye, is examined, and the wind speed is estimated using hourly and daily data over a one-year period. The data, including 12 different meteorological parameters, were taken from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The two-parameter Weibull and Rayleigh distributions, which are the most widely preferred models in wind energy studies, are employed to estimate the wind power potential using hourly wind speed data. The graphical method is implemented to calculate the shape (k) and scale (c) parameters of the Weibull distribution function. Daily average wind speed estimation is performed with artificial neural network–genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) and ANN–particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) hybrid approaches. The proposed hybrid ANN-GA and ANN-PSO algorithms provide correlation coefficient values of 0.94839 and 0.94042, respectively, indicating that the predicted and measured wind speed values are notably close. Statistical error indices reveal that the ANN-GA model outperforms the ANN-PSO model.

Keywords

• wind speed estimation
• artificial neural network
• genetic algorithm
• particle swarm optimization
• weibull distribution
• rayleigh distribution