Forecasting of Electrical Generation Using Prophet and Multiple Seasonality of Holt–Winters Models: A Case Study of Kuwait

Abstract

Electrical generation forecasting is essential for management and policymakers due to the crucial data provided for resource planning. This research employs the Prophet model with single and multiple regressors to forecast the electricity generation in Kuwait from 2020 to 2030. In addition, multiple seasonality Holt–Winters models were utilized as a benchmark for comparative analysis. The accuracy, generalization, and robustness of the models were assessed based on different statistical performance metrics. The triple seasonality Holt–Winters model achieved superior performance compared with the other models with R2 = 0.9899 and MAPE = 1.76%, followed by the double seasonality Holt–Winters model with R2 = 0.9893 and MAPE = 1.83%. Moreover, the Prophet model with multiple regressors was the third-best performing model with R2 = 0.9743 and MAPE = 2.77%. The forecasted annual generation in the year 2030 resulted in 92,535,555 kWh according to the best performing model. The study provides an outlook on the medium- and long-term electrical generation. Furthermore, the impact of fuel cost is investigated based on the five forecasting models to provide an insight for Kuwait’s policymakers.

Keywords

• prophet model
• multiple seasonality
• Holt–Winters model
• long-term forecasting